Predictive Validity of the LAP‑D Screen: Early Screening as a Window into Later Academic Outcomes

Alison Hundertmark

Advisor: Adam Winsler, PhD, Department of Psychology

Committee Members: Allison Jack, Divya Varier

David J. King Hall, #1024
November 21, 2025, 11:00 AM to 01:00 PM

Abstract:

Early developmental screening plays a crucial role in identifying children at risk for later developmental delays, which can contribute to gaps in school readiness and academic success. Yet, the long-term predictive validity of screening remains underexamined, especially within large-scale, real-world contexts. Research with strong ecological validity is especially critical for low-income and racially/ethnically diverse populations, where early screening is both most needed and often underutilized. This study draws data from a district-wide, longitudinal school readiness initiative conducted in a major urban area in the southeastern United States. A subset of children (n = 10,100) were screened between the ages of 3 and 4 using the Learning Accomplishment Profile–Diagnostic Screens (LAP-D Screen; Lockhart, 1997), a teacher-completed developmental screening tool. This investigation assessed the performance and predictive utility of the screening tool (scored as refer/pass) by tracking children who were screened at ages 3–4, formally assessed for developmental delay at ages 4–5, and followed longitudinally through third grade. Key academic outcomes included grade point average (GPA), standardized reading and math scores, Special Education placement, and grade retention. 

Screening sensitivity and specificity were moderate (Sens = 73.5%; Spec = 78.4%), with a diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) of 10, indicating that the odds of being correctly identified on the LAP-D Screen as needing a referral are 10 times higher for children who truly experience a developmental delay. The negative predictive value (NPV) is high (91.7%), while the positive predictive value (PPV) is lower (47.7%). This pattern of high NPV alongside moderate sensitivity and specificity supports the LAP-D Screen’s effectiveness as a rule-out tool for developmental delay, a key advantage in large-scale, resource-limited screening contexts.

Predictive analyses revealed that children who scored ‘refer’ on the LAP-D Screen at ages 3-4 demonstrated significantly lower academic achievement by the third grade. Multiple linear regression analyses confirmed that LAP-D screening results significantly predicted GPA in Kindergarten, 1st grade, and 3rd grade (R² = .118–174), standardized reading scores (R² = .142), and math scores (R² = .125), above and beyond demographic controls. Logistic regression models indicated that children who the LAP-D Screen referred had 3.5 times higher odds of later being identified for Special Education services (OR = 3.52, p < .001), and nearly three times higher odds of being retained at some point in early elementary school (OR = 2.84, p < .001). Interaction analyses suggested that the LAP-D Screen demonstrated stronger predictive validity for children who did not identify as Hispanic/Latine or Black (those identified as White, Asian, or Other) on standardized tests in third grade; however, these group differences did not remain statistically significant after applying Bonferroni corrections for multiple comparisons. No significant variations in predictive performance were observed for other subgroups, including English Language Learner (ELL) status or Free and Reduced-Price Lunch (FRL) eligibility.

These findings highlight the LAP-D Screen’s practical value as a community-wide screening instrument with strong rule-out capabilities and meaningful predictive validity for long-term academic outcomes. By effectively identifying at-risk children, even across diverse and historically underserved populations, the LAP-D Screen provides educators and policymakers with a valuable, low-burden, and scalable tool for early identification of developmental delays and informed decision-making in education policy.